The United States’ shifting political landscape and what it means for global automotive trade featured in a key discussion during the OICA meeting in Sydney in October. The message: regardless of who wins the White House, the current US tariff regime is unlikely to ease.
The Assembly heard that a second Trump administration would not simply maintain existing tariffs but expand their use. Through national security powers, the President can impose duties with strong legal durability, and these already cover a significant portion of automotive imports, including key components. Such measures are expected to remain in place for years, with limited scope for judicial challenge.
Should a Democratic president be elected, the administration would face strong domestic pressure to keep tariff protections in place. Historically more aligned with organised labour, Democrats have little political incentive to unwind policies framed around safeguarding US manufacturing.
For Australia, this points to an extended period of uncertainty across global supply chains. Higher input costs and constrained sourcing options mean tariff related risks will continue to influence investment and planning decisions for manufacturers supplying the Australian market.